Blog

It is the time of year when numbered and lettered forms are arriving in your mailbox.

Very good news!  Many market variables are strong while the markets are not exuberant.

On the eve of the election of the President of the United States, we remind you of the magnitude of the equity market and the weakness of the fixed income markets.

Business cycles demonstrate that previous presidential elections have not had lasting effects upon stock market performance. We learn this each presidential election. 

Investing is difficult; theoretically it should be intellectual but it usually becomes behavioral. 

As we approach the revised deadline of July 15th for filing 2019 taxes, here are a few things to keep in mind.

I am writing this Newsletter at the end of a day (5/27/20) when the market (DJIA) increased by over 2%.  These days are confidence-building, as the numbers for the day point to the market moving higher again and to a market that will not give in to fear and pessimism. No promises that it cannot go down again, but proof that no one ever knows enough to say “This time it’s different.”

The financial media say stocks are “volatile” and “risky” and bonds offer “stability” and “safety”. They say that limiting volatility and risk is an important goal for all investors, and especially retirees. They say “protection of principal” is of the utmost importance, especially as one moves from working years into retirement. We take a very different view.

In May of 1932, Dean Witter wrote, “Some people say they want to wait for a clearer view of the future.  But when the future is again clear, the present bargains will have vanished.  In fact, does anyone think that today’s prices will prevail once full confidence has been restored?” A few weeks later, the market turned, ending the worst bear market in history.

We are caught up in a nerve-wracking time.  But it is not the first, nor is it likely to be the last.  We feel that ‘a good investor’ is probably 50% emotionally controlled and 50% market knowledgeable.  And life could be worse.