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October 2020 Newsletter

Business cycles demonstrate that previous presidential elections have not had lasting effects upon stock market performance. We learn this each presidential election. 

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May 2020 Newsletter

I am writing this Newsletter at the end of a day (5/27/20) when the market (DJIA) increased by over 2%.  These days are confidence-building, as the numbers for the day point to the market moving higher again and to a market that will not give in to fear and pessimism. No promises that it cannot go down again, but proof that no one ever knows enough to say “This time it’s different.”

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April 28 2020 Newsletter

The financial media say stocks are “volatile” and “risky” and bonds offer “stability” and “safety”. They say that limiting volatility and risk is an important goal for all investors, and especially retirees. They say “protection of principal” is of the utmost importance, especially as one moves from working years into retirement. We take a very different view.

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April 2020 Newsletter

In May of 1932, Dean Witter wrote, “Some people say they want to wait for a clearer view of the future.  But when the future is again clear, the present bargains will have vanished.  In fact, does anyone think that today’s prices will prevail once full confidence has been restored?” A few weeks later, the market turned, ending the worst bear market in history.

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March 2020 Newsletter

We are caught up in a nerve-wracking time.  But it is not the first, nor is it likely to be the last.  We feel that ‘a good investor’ is probably 50% emotionally controlled and 50% market knowledgeable.  And life could be worse.

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Thoughts on the Coronavirus

We do not claim to have any idea how far this outbreak will spread, nor how many lives it will claim, before it is brought under control.  We’re reasonably certain that many of the world’s leading virologists and epidemiologists are working on it, and we believe their efforts will ultimately succeed.  If the history of similar outbreaks in the recent past is any guide, this seems to be a reasonable hypothesis.

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February 2020 Newsletter

Since there are too few people exclaiming about the wonderful results in stock market accounts, I will continue.  2019 provided returns for many equity investors of at least 20%.  The significant fact behind all of this is that the stock market has records going back to the late 1800’s and every time one looks at long term results from however one wants to identify “long term”, the results are excellent – especially in comparison to bonds. 

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November 2019 Newsletter

Observing reports on the stock market is like watching a phony boxing match where the punches do not actually land on the other boxer. The media declares WORRY and the market reacts. In a day or two, the market bounces back and frequently sets a new high. However, the media does not care about rising markets, low unemployment rates, increasing earnings or low interest rates.  Instead they warn you “The sky is going to fall!!”

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